Hichilema Wins Second Term as Zambia Extends Its Copper Strategy

What happened

On August 18, Zambia’s State House reported that Hakainde Hichilema had officially secured a second presidential term following the August 13 general election.

The result extends the administration responsible for Zambia’s National Three Million Metric Tonnes Copper Production Strategy. That strategy targets annual copper production of three million tonnes by 2031. It remains a government objective rather than a guaranteed production outcome and will depend on mine investment, power availability, infrastructure, permitting and operating performance.

The declaration coincided with the start of consultations on Zambia’s successor National Local Content Strategy. The process is intended to strengthen local enterprises, competitiveness and technology transfer across seven priority sectors, including engineering and mineral beneficiation. It places the domestic capture of value alongside the objective of producing more copper.

Signal reading

An election result does not itself create mineral supply. Its significance lies in continuity: Zambia has given the existing mining driven policy direction another mandate at a time when the government is trying to expand copper output and deepen local participation in the value chain. The next phase will test whether political continuity produces stable rules, reliable electricity, investable projects, stronger suppliers and measurable production growth.

Next proof point: continuity in the mining fiscal and regulatory framework, adoption of the successor local content strategy, reliable power for expansion, new investment decisions and measurable progress toward Zambia’s copper production target.

What happened

On August 18, BHP reported that its copper business generated a record US$18 billion of Underlying EBITDA in FY2026, equal to 54% of the Group total, at an underlying EBITDA margin of 70%. The company produced approximately two million tonnes of copper for the second consecutive year.

Revenue from copper byproducts including gold, silver and uranium reached US$4.5 billion, 45% above FY2025. BHP said this contribution materially reduced the cost of copper production at Escondida and Copper South Australia.

BHP spent US$10.3 billion on capital and exploration during the year and expects to average approximately US$11 billion annually over the medium term, with more than half allocated to copper growth. The company says its copper assets can finance that program internally at consensus prices. Its aspiration to lift attributable copper production by around 40% by FY2035 remains subject to technical studies, capital allocation and regulatory approvals.

Signal reading

The significance is not only that copper produced the largest share of earnings. Copper cash flow is now shaping BHP’s capital allocation architecture. A diversified miner is using the profitability of existing copper operations to finance multiple future growth options while preserving balance sheet flexibility and shareholder returns.

Next proof point: the allocation of medium term capital across individual copper projects, formal sanction decisions, execution against cost and schedule, and evidence that the portfolio delivers the company’s stated production growth aspiration.

What happened

On August 18, South Africa set out infrastructure development as the central implementation priority of its one year chairship of the Southern African Development Community. The agenda covers regional corridors, railways, ports, roads, electricity, water and border systems.

President Cyril Ramaphosa called on corridor countries to conclude and implement the legal and institutional arrangements required to make those routes operational. South Africa also intends to support railway revitalisation, port modernisation, regional electricity interconnection and access to electricity of at least 85% across SADC by 2030.

The chairship will seek stronger mobilisation of domestic, regional and international finance, including operationalisation of the SADC Regional Development Fund. The announcement did not commit financing to named projects. It defined an implementation agenda and proposed that progress be measured through kilometres of railway, megawatts transmitted, border crossing times, factories and jobs.

Signal reading

Southern Africa holds substantial mineral resources but remains constrained by fragmented logistics, power systems and national markets. South Africa is using the SADC chairship to move the regional discussion from resource endowment toward the infrastructure and institutional coordination required for integrated value chains.

Next proof point: named corridor projects, binding arrangements across borders, operationalisation and capitalisation of the regional fund, financing commitments and measurable reductions in logistics and electricity constraints.

What happened

On August 18, Electra Battery Materials reported further construction progress at its fully permitted brownfield cobalt sulfate refinery in Temiskaming Shores, Ontario, a project supported by the governments of Canada, Ontario and the United States.

Structural steel erection, concrete works, equipment installation, piping preparation and removal of legacy infrastructure are underway. Electra said engineering is substantially complete and that construction agreements of approximately C$26 million with WB Melback and C$6.8 million with Pro Pipe are being executed across the solvent extraction and crystalliser circuits.

The company is targeting selected commissioning activities in the fourth quarter of 2026, mechanical completion in the second quarter of 2027, production ramp up in the third quarter and commercial production in the fourth quarter of 2027. Those dates remain company targets rather than completed milestones.

Signal reading

This is a midstream project moving beyond policy support and financial announcements into concrete, steel, installed equipment and contractor execution. The refinery’s strategic relevance will depend on whether those works produce qualified battery grade cobalt sulfate at repeatable commercial scale.

Next proof point: completion of the construction packages, confirmation of remaining capital, feedstock and customer arrangements, commissioning results, product qualification and sustained commercial output.

What happened

On August 18, Minnesota Governor Tim Walz signed Executive Order 26-10, directing state agencies not to undertake environmental review or permitting work for nonferrous mining proposals in the Rainy River Headwaters Watershed until litigation over the state’s mining rules and any related rulemaking are fully resolved.

The order directs the Department of Natural Resources not to participate in federal reviews, offer new state nonferrous mineral leases or provide new state surface leases for mining operations in the watershed. It also requires a review of existing leases and preparation of legislative language that would prohibit nonferrous mining in the area.

The order responds to the cancellation of a federal mineral withdrawal that was intended to last twenty years and directly affects the institutional pathway around proposals including Twin Metals. It is not a permanent statutory ban: it becomes effective fifteen days after publication in the State Register and remains subject to rescission, statutory expiry, litigation and future legislative action.

Signal reading

This is a clear example of territorial legitimacy becoming a binding condition of mineral access. The State is not attempting to accelerate a project through stronger safeguards. It is drawing a temporary administrative boundary around the permitting process while courts, rulemaking and politics determine the longer term position.

Next proof point: the effective date and agency implementation, resolution of the litigation, the content of revised mining rules, legislative consideration and any legal challenge to the executive order.

What happened

On August 18, Peru’s Minister of Energy and Mines, Guillermo Shinno, said the government intends to advance approximately US$40 billion over five years from a national mining investment portfolio valued at more than US$64 billion.

The minister said the government would engage companies to review the position of individual projects and identify which could achieve material progress or enter operation during the period. The US$40 billion figure is a policy ambition, not evidence that the capital has already been sanctioned, financed or committed.

Shinno also proposed faster evaluation through process simplification, technology and artificial intelligence without reducing environmental standards. He linked the investment agenda to a permanent multi stakeholder space in which companies, local governments and communities can plan territorial development with greater predictability.

Signal reading

Peru is attempting to convert a large nominal project portfolio into a state execution agenda with a defined timeframe. The strength of that approach will depend on whether government coordination resolves bottlenecks affecting individual projects while preserving environmental standards and building territorial agreements around infrastructure and benefits.

Next proof point: a published list of priority projects, project level timelines and bottlenecks, measurable permitting improvements, investment decisions and construction starts, and evidence that multi stakeholder governance produces durable territorial agreements.